Just bear in mind that as soon as mining left china, the mempools got empty. Correlation is not causation but I don't think the FUD explains the drop in activity as noob don't usually go for cheap fees (like most txs were when mining was centered in China)
Nope. Think of this: if the baseline activity(transactions that need to happen, channel open/close, exchange withdraws, intra exchange txs, conjoins or even simple p2p txs) on chain leads to a mempool of 3 mb, it means that if you spam the mempool with a floor fee you make the baseline pay up. The Delta in fees is still much higher than the cost to spam the mempool: you'll pay 1 sat per bye, for example, and get it fully back 15% of the time. But at the same time you'll get 3, 4 and 5 sats per byte txs 15% of the time due to the congestion. The effect becomes even more favorable if you agree between other miners to do the same and refund each other so that 15% figure becomes much larger and the Delta in fee rate many more x.
All that not counting the fomo it causes when the mempool is full.
I'm working on a more accurate write up of that thesis, I'll post it later
Totally not because of Chinese miners spamming low fee txs to fill up blocks and force fee rates up 🙄
Should be interesting to analyze that. Are fees higher when blocks are mined by some particular miner?
Just bear in mind that as soon as mining left china, the mempools got empty. Correlation is not causation but I don't think the FUD explains the drop in activity as noob don't usually go for cheap fees (like most txs were when mining was centered in China)
Nope. Think of this: if the baseline activity(transactions that need to happen, channel open/close, exchange withdraws, intra exchange txs, conjoins or even simple p2p txs) on chain leads to a mempool of 3 mb, it means that if you spam the mempool with a floor fee you make the baseline pay up. The Delta in fees is still much higher than the cost to spam the mempool: you'll pay 1 sat per bye, for example, and get it fully back 15% of the time. But at the same time you'll get 3, 4 and 5 sats per byte txs 15% of the time due to the congestion. The effect becomes even more favorable if you agree between other miners to do the same and refund each other so that 15% figure becomes much larger and the Delta in fee rate many more x.
All that not counting the fomo it causes when the mempool is full.
I'm working on a more accurate write up of that thesis, I'll post it later